A Looming Threat to the Triangle's Biggest Economic Advantage

By Sam Rauf, Senior Economic Development Manager, WCED

*This is part 1 of a 3-part series where we take a deeper dive into workforce trends impacting the Triangle Region. In this post we explore national trends in the labor market and the rapidly changing environment we find ourselves in. Part two will explore what the national trends mean for us here in the Triangle by utilizing insights from the Regional Skills Analysis. The third portion of the series will include reactions from local workforce leaders on current and future trends.*  

The Research Triangle Region stands as a model of innovation, economic vitality, and, above all, talent. Fueled by a robust network of colleges, universities, and an award-winning community college system, the region has undergone a remarkable transformation. Once among the poorest areas in the nation during the 1950s, the Triangle now leads as a powerhouse of economic growth, helping to fuel North Carolina’s recognition as CNBC’s best state for business in two of the past three years. 

This talent-driven success has been the foundation for everything the Triangle is known for today. Without it, there would be no Research Triangle Park, no university spin-offs like SAS or Wolfspeed establishing major local footprints, and no decades of diverse economic expansion culminating in today’s thriving, balanced economy. With such a dramatic evolution, it’s easy to assume that the Triangle has firmly “checked the box” on talent, allowing the region to shift its economic focus toward other critical priorities like infrastructure, site development, taxes, and entrepreneurship. 

While these factors are undeniably important, Lightcast’s recent report, The Rising Storm, serves as an important reminder of the challenges ahead. The report highlights the accelerating impact of a global demographic drought — a labor shortage that threatens even talent-rich regions like the Triangle. This looming crisis could fundamentally alter how we live, work, and grow as a community. 

Understanding the Storm: How We Got Here 

The foundation of today’s workforce dynamics was laid decades ago during the Baby Boomers’ era. This massive generation, born between 1946 and 1964, entered the labor market under conditions starkly different from those of today. A competitive job market motivated Boomers to prioritize credentials, relocate for opportunities, and adapt their lives to the demands of employers. Employers, in turn, became accustomed to an abundant supply of eager, skilled workers. 

Fast forward to today, and those sunny conditions have given way to a far more complex reality. The Baby Boomers are now retiring at an accelerating pace—a phenomenon dubbed “The Silver Tsunami.” Out of the five million workers who exited the labor force since 2020, 80% were over the age of 55. These retirements are leaving a gap that younger generations, shaped by different economic and social pressures, are ill-prepared to fill. 

The Current Labor Market: A Tale of Mismatch and Misalignment 

The strains of the workforce shortage are already being felt. Labor force participation rates have dropped, especially among prime-age men. Challenges like addiction, incarceration, and shifting cultural attitudes towards work have further compounded the issue. Younger generations are delaying workforce entry, often pursuing college degrees that don’t align with labor market needs. 

In fact, between 2019 and 2024, the labor force grew by 3.7 million workers with bachelor’s degrees, but the number of workers without degrees shrank by 800,000. Yet, many of the most in-demand jobs nationally—home health aides, truck drivers, construction workers—don’t require a college degree. This growing misalignment underscores a critical disconnect between workforce supply and demand. 

Looking Ahead: The Eye of the Storm 

2032, the labor force is expected to grow by only 6.4 million, compared to the 25 million added during the Baby Boomers’ peak. Of those new workers, nearly 60% will be over the age of 65, and only 900,000 will lack a college degree—far too few to meet demand in critical industries. 

Immigration, which has already accounted for all net labor force growth since 2019, will play an even greater role in keeping the economy afloat. With the new presidential administration taking office, changes to the current immigration policy could heavily impact our workforce, but specific changes are yet to be known. Automation, often touted as a solution to the dwindling number problem, remains at least a couple years away from meaningful impact.  

Preparing for the Storm: What Can Be Done? 

While the challenges are daunting, they are not insurmountable. By acting strategically, the Research Triangle Region can position itself to thrive despite the labor shortages. The Rising Storm outlines several strategies to weather this demographic hurricane: 

1. Invest in Talent Development 
   Workforce training programs, particularly those that focus on soft skills and industry-specific needs, are critical. Apprenticeships and collaborations with community colleges can bridge the gap between education and employment. 

Here in the Triangle, our community is already making some of these critical investments. In 2022, Wake County voters approved $353.2 million in bonds to pay for Wake Tech's strategic growth, which will help build two new campuses with an expansion of a third. One of these new campuses will be a health science campus to help prepare our workforce to take care of the aging generation. 

Also in 2022, NC State University announced $50 million in funding from the state to expand its engineering programs that will enroll 4,000 additional students to meet the growing STEM-related needs of local employers.  

1. Leverage Innovation 
   Embracing technology—such as automation and AI—can help mitigate labor shortages in certain sectors. However, these solutions must be paired with retraining initiatives to ensure displaced workers have opportunities in emerging fields. 

1. Tap New Talent Pools 
   Attracting and retaining talent from underserved populations, immigrants, and nontraditional workers can expand the workforce. Programs that reduce barriers to entry, such as affordable childcare and transportation support, will be key. 

An example of this here in the Triangle is the Wake Local Reentry Council (LRC), which is a collaborative of organizations working to help individuals transition back into the community after leaving incarceration. The effort is supported by Capital Area Workforce Development and made possible by Wake County.  

1. Focus on Retention 
   Keeping workers engaged and satisfied is just as important as attracting new talent. Competitive wages, flexible work arrangements, and professional development opportunities can help reduce turnover in critical roles. 

Moving Forward, Together 

The Research Triangle has always been a region that leads—in innovation, collaboration, and economic growth. Addressing the looming labor crisis will require all of these strengths and more. By aligning our workforce strategies with our region’s unique needs, we can ensure that our community continues to thrive, even in the face of adversity. 

As the Lightcast Report points out, the storm is coming—but with foresight and action, we can weather it together.